Climate Change Impacts the Protective Effect of Forests: A Case Study in Switzerland

In steep terrain, forests play an important role as natural means of protection against hazards, such rockfall. Due to climate warming, significant changes in the service these have be expected future. Shifts current more drought adapted species may result temporary or even irreversible losses reduction rockfall risk provided by forests. this study, we assessed how protective capacity a forest western part Valais Swiss Alps change future, combining dynamic modelling with quantitative analysis. Current and future development was modelled spatially explicit model TreeMig under moderate (RCP4.5) extreme (RCP8.5) scenario. The simulated scenarios were compared ground-truth data from complex. We quantified effect different based on for people infrastructure at bottom slope. Rockfall calculated basis three-dimensional simulations. simulations predicted clear decrease basal area most currently occuring ( Fagus sylvatica , Picea abies Larix decidua Abies alba ) turned into Quercus pubescens dominated forest, both scenarios, mixed Pinus sylvestris RCP4.5. With increase is scenarios. long-term (>100 years), stabilization risk, slight decline due biomass trees. results study further indicate that regular interventions promote regeneration thus accelerate shift distribution. Future research should explore details adaptive management strategies change.